Russia-Ukraine conflict will turn into a ‘Frozen Conflict’ in next four to six months

Washington / Moscow / Kyiv – In the next four to six months, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will transform into a ‘Frozen Conflict’ like the Korean War, claimed a former commander of NATO, Admiral James Stavridis. Former NATO officials also said that the plans made by Russian President Vladimir Putin have not been very effective, and Ukraine has put up a good fight. Meanwhile, if the issue of peace talks with Ukraine arises in the near future, the conditions for it will be more rigorous than before, President Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov warned.

'Frozen Conflict' More than four and a half months have passed since the Russia-Ukraine conflict started at the end of February. During this period, Russia gained complete control of the Luhansk province in the Donbas region of Ukraine. At the same time, Russia has seized nearly more than 80% of the two provinces in southern Ukraine. A few days ago, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, warned that he would not withdraw unless the planned objectives of the conflict were met.

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that the balance of the conflict has begun to change due to weapon supplies by the West. Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army has succeeded in causing huge losses by counter-attacking Russia based on weapons provided by the US, including other countries. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that Ukraine would discuss with Russia only after defeating Russia on the battlefield.

A different tone seems to be expressed in western countries while these statements are being issued from Russia and Ukraine. Western diplomats and analysts have repeatedly advised Ukraine to prepare for peace talks in the past few weeks. Some significant Western countries’ leaders also have issued cautionary warnings to Ukraine. Against this background, the mention of ‘Frozen Conflict’ by former NATO officials becomes noticeable.

In a radio interview, former NATO commander Stavridis claimed that Russia and Ukraine could not sustain a conflict for more than four to six months. This war will end like the Korean War. ‘I see this one headed toward a Korean War ending, which is to say an armistice, a militarized zone between the two sides, ongoing animosity, kind of a frozen conflict,’ Stavridis said. The Korean War was fought between North and South Korea between 1950 and 1953. Although there has been an armistice, there has not been a peace treaty. Hence, the two countries are considered to be in a state of war against each other.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence of Russia informed that Russia used Kamikaze, i.e. suicide drones, for the first time in the conflict against Ukraine. The Ministry of Defence said the attack was launched with the assistance of suicidal drones, ‘Lancet’ in the Zaporizhzhia province in southern Ukraine.

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