Canberra/Beijing/Taipei: Experts have warned that the China-Taiwan war will erupt in the next five to ten years, and Australia will be dragged into it. Oriana Mastro, an analyst and expert at US-based Stanford University, said that no matter what other tactics China uses, Taiwan will not bow down, and Beijing will have to take military action to capture it. ‘If China decides to take military action, the United States will step into the war, and then Australia will have to participate in it,’ Mastro concluded.
China’s communist regime has become more aggressive over the past year and is taking rapid steps to implement its expansionist policies. The next step is to gain control of Taiwan. Chinese Communist Party leaders, as well as military officials, have made it clear that they have readied a plan to attack Taiwan. Increased incursions into Taiwan’s borders after the administration change in the United States make China’s intentions evident.
Considering the developments, American and Australian experts explained their position on the China-Taiwan war and Australia’s involvement in an online seminar organized by La Trobe University in Australia. ‘There is disagreement over the kind of force China would use against Taiwan. China is expected to use many tactics such as grey zone warfare, repression, coercion, political warfare. However, the Taiwanese people will not pay much heed to such tactics. China will not be able to occupy Taiwan unless its troops land on the island nation. So, in the next few years, China will try to enter Taiwan through an amphibious landing,’ Stanford University analyst and expert Oriana Mastro warned.
‘Some Australians are debating the steps the United States would likely take. If Taiwan is attacked, the US will certainly go to war, 100 per cent. Also, some groups in China feel that they will be able to overwhelm the United States and their allies in the Taiwan conflict. China’s defence forces are likely to reach Taiwan before the US responds with full force,’ he said, adding that Australia would thereby be forced to join the war, taking that fact into account.
An expert at La Trobe University, Nick Bisley, says the China-Taiwan war is likely to erupt in the next 5 to 10 years. ‘Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned that the current generation will resolve the issue of Taiwan. With that in mind, the China-Taiwan war would take place during President Xi’s tenure,’ Bisley underscored. Guy Borkenstein, an analyst at the Northern Australia Asia Society, says that although the China-Taiwan war may not be conventional, Australia has a 100 per cent chance of being drawn into it. He also acknowledged that Australia’s defence forces, although small in size, were capable of warfare.
Australian leaders have also made aggressive statements about the China-Taiwanese war in the past. In April, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton warned that a potential conflict between China and Taiwan could not be ruled out. Also, Australia’s Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzulo warned of a possible China-Taiwan war, saying war drums were beating in nearby areas. Some Australian officials and leaders have clearly expressed their stand that Australia should support the US military in the event of a conflict in Taiwan.
China had even threatened Australia over it. China’s government mouthpiece, the Global Times, had threatened that China would launch missile attacks on key Australian military installations if it supported the US military in the Taiwan issue.
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