Geneva – World Trade Organization (WTO) chief warned Russia-Ukraine conflict would hit global trade hard. An earlier report had forecast a 4.8% growth in the trade. But the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the growth down to 2.5%, has warned Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of WTO. A month has passed since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and inflation has flared up in many of the world’s major countries. Economists and analysts fear that this inflation would result in the global economy being hit by the recession.  

Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are known as the worlds’ ‘Bread Basket’. These countries lead in wheat, pulses, maize, and sunflower production. Russia and Ukraine account for about 14% of global cereal exports. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a considerable effect on agriculture in both countries. Sanctions over Russia have affected the country’s food grains exports. Besides, attacks on Ukraine have caused extensive damage to agricultural land in the country. At the same time, restrictions on Russian exports by Western countries have disrupted global supply chains, and a shortage of metals and raw materials has started being felt.  

Against this backdrop, the warning given by the WTO chief draws attention. The WTO Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that Russia and Ukraine account for about 2.5% of world trade exports. However, both the countries are leading producers and exporters in some areas. Therefore, the crisis in this sector will also impact the global economy. She warned that disruption of food grains supply in Ukraine could hit many underdeveloped and emerging countries hard. She further said that inflation could rise in these countries. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala drew attention to how food grain shortage could intensify the starvation crisis.  

Indications have begun to emerge in African countries. Thirty-five countries in Africa import food grains from Russia and Ukraine. According to the information provided by African Development Bank, food grains prices in African countries have flared up by 20 to 50% over the past month. Last month, the United Nations warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to a 20% rise in food grain prices and a severe food crisis in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Moreover, analysts fear that food riots could erupt in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 

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