Taiwan may resort to nuclear defense to deter China, Australian think tank analysts claim

Taipei/Beijing: Two years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping had announced that he had kept the military alternative open for taking control of Taiwan. Since then, US President Donald Trump has significantly ramped up the sale of military weapons to Taiwan and made a spate of deals with the island to provide fighter jets, military and advanced systems. However, the continuance of the policy is being questioned with regard to Joe Biden assuming office. Nervous due to Trump’s decisions, China, has begun to add tremendous pressure on Taiwan. An Australian think tank analyst claimed that Taiwan might opt for nuclear weapons to deter China given the situation.

In an article on the website ‘The Strategist’, Alex Littlefield and Adam Lowther from The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), mentioned the possibility of Taiwan becoming nuclear-armed. US-based analyst Michael Pillsbury said the Chinese Communist regime had set the objective of recovering Taiwan and Hong Kong by 2049. Littlefield and Lowther quoted this and highlighted the current subversive activities of China. At the same time, they also voiced a possible change in US policy after Biden takes office.

The analysts at The Strategist assert that ‘After Biden becomes president, the US policy on China will not be as bold as during Trump’s term. Biden will maintain the ambiguity in US policy on Taiwan. The President-elect may pave the way forward with China through reconciliation and discussions. China is confident about Biden’s stand and will continue to pressurise Taiwan increasingly. Therefore, Taiwan will have to prepare to take extreme measures to safeguard its independence, given the uncertainty with regard to Chinese activities and strong US backing.’

Littlefield and Lowther have stated that ‘Treading on Israel’s footsteps, Taiwan could reinitiate its secret nuclear program again and use a ‘Japan option’ to expedite production of nuclear weapons.’ Previously, in 1967, and then in the 1980s, Taiwan had run its nuclear program aggressively, the analysts underscored. During the 1970s, Taiwan successfully produced a weapon’s grade plutonium and a successful nuclear reaction. The article brings the points in focus. What has been noted is that both times, US pressure and a change in China’s policy, were factors that attributed to the closure of Taiwan’s nuclear program.

Analysts claim that if Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons, it will be quite difficult for China to invade the island. Littlefield and Lowther went on to say that ‘US experts and analysts on China policy may reject the likelihood of Taiwan becoming nuclear-armed. The reason behind it could be that they are unaware of China’s extreme pressure on Taiwan.’ The Strategist’s article warned that ‘There is intense and widespread discontent among the Taiwanese citizens given the Chinese regime’s action against the island. Therefore, Taiwanese leadership may take any step to secure its independence with or without the US.’

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